Minimizing the impact of urbanization on long term runoff

Increasing concern about the problems caused by urban sprawl has encouraged development and implementation of smart growth approaches to land use management. One of the goals of smart growth is water resources protection, in particular minimizing the runoff impact of urbanization. To investigate the magnitude of the potential benefits of land use planning for water resources protection, possible runoff impacts of historical and projected urbanization were estimated for two watersheds in Indiana and Michigan using a long term hydrological impact analysis model. An optimization component allowed selection of land use change placements that minimize runoff increase. Optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by as much as 4.9 percent from 1973 to 1997 in the Indiana study watershed. For nonsprawl and sprawl scenarios in the Michigan watershed for 1978 to 2040, optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by 12.3 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. The work presented here illustrates both an approach to assessing the magnitude of the impact of smart growth and the significant potential scale of smart growth in moderating runoff changes that result from urbanization. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning.