Water balance of Lake Tana and its sensitivity to fluctuations in rainfall, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

The annual water budget of Lake Tana is determined from estimates of runoff, rainfall on the lake, measured outflow and empirically determined evaporation. Simulation of lake level variation (1960-1992) has been conducted through modeling at a monthly time step. Despite the +/- 20% rainfall variations in the Blue Nile basin in the last 50 years, the lake level remained regular. A preliminary analysis of the sensitivity of level and outflow of the lake suggests that they are controlled more by variation in rainfall than by basin-scale forcing induced by human activities. The analysis shows that a drastic (40-45%) and sustained (7-8 years) rainfall reduction is required to change the lake from out flowing to terminal (cessation of outflow). However, the outflow from the lake shows significant variation responding to the rainfall variations. Unlike the terminal lakes in the Ethiopian rift valley or the other large lakes of Tropical Africa, at its present hydrologic condition, the Lake Tana level is less sensitive to rainfall variation and changes in catchment characteristics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.