Low-frequency variability and evolution of north American cold air outbreaks

Hourly data from 17 relatively evenly distributed stations cast of the Rocky Mountains during 54 winter seasons (1948/49 through 2001/02) are used to evaluate the low-frequency variability of extreme cold air outbreaks (CAOs). The results show no overall trend in CAO frequency, despite an increase in mean temperature over the Midwest and especially upstream into the CAO formation regions of high-latitude North America. However, there are regionally based trends in the intensity of long-duration (5 day) CAOs. Daily heat budgets from reanalysis data are also used to investigate the thermodynamic and dynamic processes involved in the evolution of a subset of the major CAOs. The cooling of the air masses can be generally traced in the heat budget analysis as the air masses track southward along the Rocky Mountains into the Midwest. The earliest cooling begins in northwestern Canada more than a week before the cold air mass reaches the Midwest. Downstream in southwestern Canada, both diabatic and advective processes contribute to the cumulative cooling of the air mass. At peak intensity over the Midwest, diabatic processes and horizontal advection cool the air mass, but warming by subsidence offsets this cooling. By contrast, to the west of the CAO track into the Midwestern United States, vertical advection by orographic lifting cumulatively cools the air in the upslope flow regime associated with the low-level airflow around a cold air mass, and this cooling is offset by diabatic warming. Diabatic processes have strong positive correlations with temperature change over all regions (especially in central Canada) except for the mountainous regions in the United States that are to the west of the track of the cold air mass. Correlations of vertical advection with horizontal advection and diabatic processes are physically consistent and give credibility to the vertical advection field.