期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 134, 期 1, 页码 63-70出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268805005479
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A growing number of publications are recommending annual influenza vaccination of healthy children and adults. However, the long-term consequences of repeated influenza vaccination are unknown. We used a simple model of recurrent influenza infection to assess the likely impact of various repeated influenza vaccination scenarios. The model was based on a Markovian framework and was fitted on annual incidence rates of influenza infection by age. We found that natural influenza infection reduced the risk of being re-infected by 15(.)4% (95% confidence interval 7(.)1-23(.)0). Various scenarios of repeated influenza vaccination were then simulated and compared with a reference scenario where vaccination is given from age 65 years onwards. We show that repeated vaccination at a young age substantially increases the risk of influenza in older age, by a factor ranging between 1(.)2 (vaccination after 50 years) to 2(.)4 (vaccination from birth). These findings have important implications for influenza vaccination policies.
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