期刊
SCIENCE
卷 311, 期 5762, 页码 854-856出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1121066
关键词
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Hit songs, books, and movies are many times more successful than average, suggesting that the best alternatives are qualitatively different from the rest; yet experts routinely fail to predict which products wilt succeed. We investigated this paradox experimentally, by creating an artificial music market in which 14,341 participants downloaded previously unknown songs either with or without knowledge of previous participants' choices. Increasing the strength of social influence increased both inequality and unpredictabitity of success. Success was also only partly determined by quality: The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible.
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