Integrated assessment of water resources potential in the North China Region: Developmental trends and challenges

Potential assessment of water resources development (PAWRD) is very important for regional water management, water allocation, water transfer and economic planning, especially for today China, which is under a rapid economic growth, a continued expansion of population and an increasingly deteriorating eco-environment. In this work, the southern Part of Haihe River (SPHR) is selected as the representative area of the North China Region for a case study based on considerations such as available data, geographic characteristics, administrative boundaries, and the state of water shortage. A growth pattern of regional water resources development is presented. A fuzzy assessment model is established and applied to determine the growth stage, an indicator for water resources development potential. Seven assessment factors, selected based on the conditions of supply, demand. and use efficiency of water subjected to the regional physical, social, and economic settings, include irrigation rate of arable land, exploitation rate of water resources, the water-saving level, a water supply and demand modulus, the water supply per capita, and the ratio of eco-environmental water use. These factors are integrated into the fuzzy assessment model, which is shown to be capable and effective for potential assessment. The assessment results demonstrate the potential of water resources development is little in SPHR and are substantiated by the necessity of the middle route of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) in the long run. It is also suggested at present that promoting water saving and strengthening water demand controls would be the most feasible and effective solution to mitigate water shortage stress of SPHR before the SNWT scheme is implemented. PAWRD provides a scientific tool for water-demand management and water-saving improvement, as well as a necessary basis for decision-making for economy planning and water transfer design.