A landslide susceptibility model using the Analytical Hierarchy Process method and multivariate statistics in penialpine Slovenia

Landslides cause damage to property and unfortunately pose a threat even to human lives. Good landslide susceptibility, hazard, and risk models could help mitigate or even avoid the unwanted consequences resulted from such hillslope mass movements. For the purpose of landslide susceptibility assessment the study area in the central Slovenia was divided to 78 365 slope units, for which 24 statistical variables were calculated. For the land-use and vegetation data, multi-spectral high-resolution images were merged using Principal Component Analysis method and classified with an unsupervised classification. Using multivariate statistical analysis (factor analysis), the interactions between factors and landslide distribution were tested, and the importance of individual factors for landslide occurrence was defined. The results show that the slope, the lithology, the terrain roughness, and the cover type play important roles in landslide susceptibility. The importance of other spatial factors varies depending on the landslide type. Based on the statistical results several landslide susceptibility models were developed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process method. These models gave very different results, with a prediction error ranging from 4.3% to 73%. As a final result of the research, the weights of important spatial factors from the best models were derived with the AHP method. Using probability measures, potentially hazardous areas were located in relation to population and road distribution, and hazard classes were assessed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.