Incidence, predictors, and associated outcomes of atrial fibrillation after kidney transplantation

The risk for and predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) after kidney transplantation are not well described. Registry data that were collected by the United States Renal Data System were used to investigate retrospectively new-onset AF among adult first renal allograft recipients and transplant candidates who received a transplant or were wait-listed in 1995 to 2001 with Medicare as the primary payer. AF events were ascertained from billing records, and participants were followed until loss of Medicare coverage or December 31, 2001. Cox hazards analysis was used to identify independent correlates of posttransplantation AF (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]; 95% confidence interval [CI]) and to examine AF as an outcomes predictor. Among 31,136 eligible transplant recipients, the cumulative incidence of new-onset AF was 3.6% (95% CI 3.4 to 3.8%) and 7.3% (95% CI 7.0 to 7.6%) at 12 and 36 mo and declined below the demographics-adjusted cumulative incidence on the waiting list by approximately 17 mo. Risk factors for posttransplantation AF included older recipient age, male gender, white race, renal failure from hypertension, and coronary artery disease. Extended pretransplantation dialysis duration, posttransplantation diabetes, and graft failure were identified as potentially modifiable correlates of AF. In separate analyses, AF independently predicted death (AHR 3.2; 95% CI 2.9 to 3.6) and death-censored graft loss (AHR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.3). As the population of renal transplant recipients grows older, the incidence and prevalence of AF among these patients will likely increase. Appropriate risk stratification may identify transplant recipients who are in need of close monitoring for and management of this adverse cardiovascular event.