Long-term discharge prediction for the Turnu Severin station (the Danube) using a linear autoregressive model

The long-term trends of yearly discharge time series and runoff variability at seven stations along the River Danube are identified. The results of statistical analysis of discharge time series indicate the period around the year 1860 was the driest decade in central and eastern Europe since 1840. In these years, the mean annual air temperature in central Europe was lower by about 1 degrees C compared with the 1990s. It is important to notice that the two driest decades (around 1860s and 1990s) of the instrumental era occurred in very different temperature conditions. The 28-31 years; 20-21 years; 14 years, as well as 4.2, 3.6, and 2.4 years fluctuations of annual discharge in the River Danube were found. Also, the long-term stream, flow prediction based on stochastic modelling methods is treated. Harmonic models and the Box-Jenkins methods were used. The predictions of yearly River Danube discharge time series were made for two decades ahead. From the stochastic models it follows that the annual discharge in the Danube at Turnu Severin station should reach its local maximum within the years 2004-06. The period 2015-19 should be dry. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.