Predictive Factors for the Benefit of Perioperative FOLFOX for Resectable Liver Metastasis in Colorectal Cancer Patients (EORTC Intergroup Trial 40983)

Objective: In EORTC study 40983, perioperative FOLFOX increased progression-free survival (PFS) compared with surgery alone for patients with initially 1 to 4 resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer (CRC). We conducted an exploratory retrospective analysis to identify baseline factors possibly predictive for a benefit of perioperative FOLFOX on PFS. Methods: The analysis was based on 237 events from 342 eligible patients. Cox proportional hazards regression models with a significance level of 0.1 were used to build up univariate and multivariate models. Results: After adjustment for identified prognostic factors, moderately (5.1-30 ng/mL) and highly (>30 ng/mL) elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) serum levels were both predictive for the benefit of perioperative chemotherapy (interaction P = 0.07; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.58 and HR = 0.52 for treatment benefit). For patients with moderately or highly elevated CEA (>5 ng/mL), the 3-year PFS was 35% with perioperative chemotherapy compared to 20% with surgery alone. Performance status (PS) 0 and BMI lower than 30 were also predictive for the benefit of perioperative chemotherapy (interaction P = 0.04 and P = 0.02). However, the number of patients with PS 1 and BMI 30 or higher were limited. The benefit of perioperative therapy was not influenced by the number of metastatic lesions (1 vs 2-4, interaction HR = 0.98). Conclusions: Perioperative FOLFOX seems to benefit in particular patients with resectable liver metastases from CRC when CEA is elevated and when PS is unaffected, regardless of the number of metastatic lesions.