Predicting the Risk of Perioperative Transfusion for Patients Undergoing Elective Hepatectomy

Objective: To develop 2 instruments that predict the probability of perioperative red blood cell transfusion in patients undergoing elective liver resection for primary and secondary tumors. Summary Background Data: Hepatic resection is the most effective treatment for several benign and malign conditions, but may be accompanied by substantial blood loss and the need for perioperative transfusions. While blood conservation strategies such as autologous blood donation, acute normovolemic hemodilution, or cell saver systems are available, they are economically efficient only if directed toward patients with a high risk of transfusion. Methods: Using preoperative data from 1204 consecutive patients who underwent liver resection between 1995 and 2000 at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, we modeled the probability of perioperative red blood cell transfusion. We used the resulting model, validated on an independent dataset (n = 555 patients), to develop 2 prediction instruments, a nomogram and a transfusion score, which can be easily implemented into clinical practice. Results: The planned number of liver segments resected, concomitant extrahepatic organ resection, a diagnosis of primary liver malignancy, as well as preoperative hemoglobin and platelets levels predicted the probability of perioperative red blood cell transfusion. The predictions of the model appeared accurate and with good discriminatory abilities, generating an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71. Conclusions: Preoperative factors can be combined into risk profiles to predict the likelihood of transfusion during or after elective liver resection. These predictions, easy to calculate in the frame of a nomogram or of a transfusion score, can be used to identify patients who are at high risk for red cell transfusions and therefore most likely to benefit from blood conservation techniques.