期刊
ECONOMICS LETTERS
卷 91, 期 3, 页码 425-429出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.01.004
关键词
beliefs; efficient markets hypothesis; futures markets; prediction markets; subjective probabilities
类别
Prediction markets are futures markets in which prices are used to predict future events. I present the first formal analysis of price determination supposing traders have heterogeneous beliefs, deriving the equilibrium when traders are risk-neutral price takers. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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