期刊
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
卷 69, 期 1, 页码 64-83出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.05.005
关键词
sovereign debt; default; current account; interest rates; stochastic trend
类别
World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. We highlight the role of the stochastic trend in emerging markets, in an otherwise standard model with endogenous default, to match these facts. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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