期刊
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
卷 324, 期 1-4, 页码 239-254出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.022
关键词
climatic variability; climatic changes; hurst phenomenon; hydrological design; hydrological statistics; nonstationarity; risk; scaling; statistical estimates; statistical tests; uncertainty
The perception of a changing climate, which impacts also hydrological processes, is now generally admitted. However, the way of handling the changing nature of climate in hydrologic practice and especially in hydrological statistics has not become clear so far. The most common modelling approach is to assume that long-term trends, which have been found to be omnipresent in long hydrological time series, are 'deterministic' components of the time series and the processes represented by the time series are nonstationary. In this paper, it is maintained that this approach is contradictory in its rationale and even in the terminology it uses. As a result, it may imply misleading perception of phenomena and estimate of uncertainty. Besides, it is maintained that a stochastic approach hypothesizing stationarity and simultaneously admitting a scaling behaviour reproduces climatic trends (considering them as large-scale fluctuations) in a manner that is logically consistent, easy to apply and free of paradoxical results about uncertainty. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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