3.8 Article

Justifying conditionalization: Conditionalization maximizes expected epistemic utility

期刊

MIND
卷 115, 期 459, 页码 607-632

出版社

OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/mind/fzl607

关键词

-

向作者/读者索取更多资源

According to Bayesian epistemology, the epistemically rational agent updates her beliefs by conditionalization: that is, her posterior subjective probability after taking account of evidence X, p(new), is to be set equal to her prior conditional probability P-old ((.)vertical bar X). Bayesians can be challenged to provide a justification for their claim that conditionalization is recommended by rationality-whence the normative force of the injunction to conditionalize? There are several existing justifications for conditionalization, but none directly addresses the idea that conditionalization will be epistemically rational if and only if it can reasonably be expected to lead to epistemically good outcomes. We apply the approach of cognitive decision theory to provide a justification for conditionalization using precisely that idea. We assign epistemic utility functions to epistemically rational agents; an agent's epistemic utility is to depend both upon the actual state of the world and on the agent's credence distribution over possible states. We prove that, under independently motivated conditions, conditionalization is the unique updating rule that maximizes expected epistemic utility.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

3.8
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据