The role of nitrogen in world food production and environmental sustainability

On the basis of the FAO projection 'World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030' we direct our discussion to food production, the consequences for land use, efficiency of nitrogen (N) and losses of reactive N to the environment during 1995-2030. According the FAO, global food production can keep pace with the increase in food demand in the coming three decades. However, according the projection used here, there will be a major global increase (8%) in arable land, most of it in developing countries and with a major impact on the extent of tropical forests. Further forest clearing may occur to compensate for declining soil productivity due to land degradation. Despite improvements in the N use efficiency, total reactive N loss will grow strongly in the world's increasingly intensive agricultural systems. In the 1995-2030 period emissions of reactive N from intensive agricultural systems will continue to rise, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the increase of N use efficiency and further improvement of agronomic management must remain high on the priority list of policy makers. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.