Regional socio-economic and environmental changes and their impacts on water resources on example of Odra and Elbe basins

During the last two decades significant socio-economic and environmental changes took place in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), including collapse of the old socio-economic systems and climate change. The main objective of the paper is to analyse changes in water resources in the region and to relate them either to ongoing climate change or to socio-economic changes in the region, where possible. Two basins located in the Eastern part of Germany and in the Western part of Poland were taken as case study areas. An attempt to compare changes of water resources triggered by socio-economic and environmental (therein climate) changes was undertaken, including quantitative assessment of relative magnitudes of impacts, where feasible. The impacts on both water quantity and water quality aspects were investigated, considering changes in river discharge, groundwater dynamics, water demand, point and non-point source pollution in both basins under study. Where necessary, the analysis of data was supported by modelling results. The analysis reported confirms that until now the changes in socio-economic systems have impacted regional water resources in a more significant way than the climate change. However, the impacts of climate change on water resources in the study regions are likely to increase in the future, warmer climate, as projected by the existing scenarios.