Economics of species change subject to risk of climate change and increasing information: a (quasi-)option value analysis

In the context of climate change, several forest adaptation options have to be advocated such as a shift to more resistant species. We provide an economic analysis of timber species change as a tool for adapting forests to climate change. We use the framework of cost-benefit analysis, taking uncertainty into account both exogenously (sensitivity analysis) and endogenously [(quasi-)option value calculations]. We apply the method to assess the economic rationale for converting Norway spruce stands to Douglas-fir in the French Black Mountain. We find that the Douglas-fir conversion is land expectation value (LEV) maximizing under a wide range of a priori (subjective) probabilities attached to high mortality of Norway spruce under climate change (for probabilities higher than 0.25-0.31). If information about the impacts of climate change is expected to increase over time, and given the large sunk costs attached to conversion, a delay strategy may be preferable to transition and to status quo when the impacts of climate change on Norway spruce mortality are sufficiently ambiguous. In such cases, getting information earlier increases the LEV by a,not sign5-60/ha. Beyond the specifics of the case study, this paper suggests that quasi-option value is a relevant tool to provide insights to forest owners dealing with adaptation decisions in the context of climate change.