期刊
ANNALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
卷 22, 期 3, 页码 191-197出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.12.001
关键词
Cardiovascular Models; Epidemiology; Heart Diseases; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Statistics
资金
- National Heart Lung and Blood Institute [N01-HC-55015, N01-HC-55016, N01-HC-55018, N01-HC-55019, N01-HC-55020, N01-HC-55021, N01-HC-55022, T32HL07024]
PURPOSE: To examine the effect of correcting coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors for long-term within-person variation on CHD risk. METHODS: By using 5533 men and 7301 women from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, we compared models incorporating risk factors measured at a single visit and models incorporating additional measurements for systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol taken 3 years before baseline. RESULTS: The largest change away from null was observed for systolic blood pressure, ie, hazard ratio (HR) 1.38 to 1.69 (+81%) in women and HR 1.26 to 1.41 (+56%) in men. HRs also decreased for age (-32% in women, -9% in men), race (-67% in women), the presence of diabetes (-13% in men and women), and medication use for hypertension (-27% in women, 26% in men) and cholesterol (-97% in women, HR 1.06-0.93 in men). The area under the ROC curve did not improve significantly in men or women, whereas reclassification was only significant in women (net reclassification improvement 5.4%, p = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: Modeling long-term variation in CHD risk factors had a substantial impact on HR estimates, with new effect estimates further from the null for some risk factors and closer for others including age and medication use, but only improved risk classification in women. Ann Epidemiol 2012;22:191-197. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据