4.4 Article

Scenario types and techniques:: Towards a user's guide

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FUTURES
卷 38, 期 7, 页码 723-739

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ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002

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Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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