Species-specific features affect the ability of census-derived models to map winter avian distribution

We identify autoecological traits of bird species that influence the accuracy of predictive models of species distribution based on census data obtained from stratified sampling. These models would serve as a complementary approach to the development of regional bird atlases. We model the winter bird abundance of 64 terrestrial bird species in 77 census plots in Central Spain (Madrid province), using regression tree analyses. The predicted distribution of species density derived from statistical models (birds/10 ha) was compared with the published relative abundances depicted by a very accurate regional atlas of wintering birds (birds observed per 10 h). Statistical models explained an average of 41.7% of the original deviance observed in the local bird distribution (range 19.6-79.3%). Significant associations between observed relative abundances (atlas data) and predicted average densities in 1x1 km squares within 10x10 km UTMs were attained for 44 out of 64 species. Interspecific discrepancies between predicted and observed distribution maps decreased with between-year constancy in regional bird distribution and the degree of ecological specialization of species. Therefore, statistical modeling using census localities allowed us to depict geographical variations in bird abundance that were similar to those in the quantitative atlas maps. Nevertheless, bird distributions derived from statistical models are less reproducible in some species than in others, depending on their autoecological traits.