Sensitivity analysis in presence of model uncertainty and correlated inputs

The first motivation of this work is to take into account model uncertainty in sensitivity analysis (SA). We present with some examples, a methodology to treat uncertainty due to a mutation of the studied model. Development of this methodology has highlighted an important problem, frequently encountered in SA: how to interpret sensitivity indices when random inputs are non-independent? This paper suggests a strategy for the problem of SA of models with non-independent random inputs. We propose a new application of the multidimensional generalization of classical sensitivity indices, resulting from group sensitivities (sensitivity of the output of the model to a group of inputs), and describe an estimation method based on Monte-Carlo simulations. Practical and theoretical applications illustrate the interest of this method. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.