ON SPATIAL EXTREMES: WITH APPLICATION TO A RAINFALL PROBLEM

We consider daily rainfall observations at 32 stations in the province of North Holland (the Netherlands) during 30 years. Let T be the total rainfall in this area on one day. An important question is: what is the amount of rainfall T that is exceeded once in 100 years? This is clearly a problem belonging to extreme value theory. Also, it is a genuinely spatial problem. Recently, a theory of extremes of continuous stochastic processes has been developed. Using the ideas of that theory and much computer power (simulations), we have been able to come up with a reasonable answer to the question above.