Flood forecasting and analysis within the Ulus Basin, Turkey, using geographic information systems

Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing significant damage in the area. In this study, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the basin and the riverbed are determined by calibrating the hydraulic module of the MIKE 11 modeling system with the observed 1991 flood. Then, for the 25-, 50- and 100-year floods the highest water levels in the river are forecasted by integration of the MIKE 11 hydrologic and hydraulic modules. Afterwards, inundation maps are obtained by using together the hydraulic and GIS modules of the MIKE 11 system.