Risk assessment of water erosion for the Qareh Aghaj subbasin, southern Iran

South of the Zagros belt, the entire land of Southern Iran faces problems arising out of various types of land degradation of which water erosion forms a major type. A new model has been developed for assessing the risk of water erosion. Taking into consideration nine indicators of water erosion the model identifies areas with 'Potential Risk' (risky zones) and areas of 'Actual Risk' as well as projects the probability of the worse degradation in future. The Qareh Aghaj subbasin (1,265,000 ha), which covers the upper reaches of Mond River, has been chosen for a test risk assessment of this kind. The preparation of risk maps based on the GIS analysis of these indicators will be helpful for prioritizing the areas to initiate remedial measures. The different kinds of data for indicators of water erosion were gathered from the records and published reports of the governmental offices of Iran. By fixing the thresholds of severity classes of the nine indicators a hazard map for each indicator was first prepared in GIS. The risk classes were defined on the basis of risk scores arrived at by assigning the appropriate attributes to the indicators and the risk map was prepared by overlaying nine hazard maps in the GIS. Areas under potential risk have been found to be widespread (63%) in the basin and when classified into subclasses with different probability levels the model projects a statistical picture of the risk of land degradation.