期刊
CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES
卷 44, 期 2, 页码 272-279出版社
UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
DOI: 10.1086/510427
关键词
-
Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that these markets can accurately predict statewide seasonal influenza activity 2 - 4 weeks in advance by using clinical data volunteered from participating health care workers. Information revealed by prediction markets may help to inform treatment, prevention, and policy decisions. Also, these markets could help to refine existing surveillance systems.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据