Renewed ground uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): New insight on magmatic processes and forecast

Campi Flegrei caldera, including the extremely urbanised city of Naples, is the most risky volcanic area in the World. The last eruption in the area ( 1538) occurred at the end of some decades of ground uplift, superimposed to secular subsidence. During the last four decades, it experienced a huge uplift phase, reaching about 3.5 m in 1985, when a subsidence phase started. Recent geodetic data demonstrate that such a subsidence phase has terminated, and a new uplift episode started in November 2004, with a low but increasing rate leading to about 0.04 m of uplift till the end of October 2006. A new indicator, based on the monitoring of maximum horizontal to vertical displacement ratio with continuous GPS, indicates that this uplift is likely to be associated with input of magmatic fluids from a shallow magma chamber. The method is promising to monitor magma intrusion processes, at this and other volcanoes.