Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze River Basin, 1961-2000

The suspected impact of climate warming on precipitation distribution is examined in the Yangtze River Basin. Daily precipitation data for 147 meteorological stations from 1961-2000 and monthly discharge data for three stations in the basin have been analyzed for temporal and spatial trends. The methods used include the Mann-Kendall test and simple regression analysis. The results show (1) a significant positive trend in summer precipitation at many stations especially for June and July, with the summer precipitation maxima in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in the 1990s; (2) a positive trend in rainstorm frequency that is the main contributor to increased summer precipitation in the basin; and (3) a significant positive trend in flood discharges in the middle and lower basin related to the spatial patterns and temporal trends of both precipitation and individual rainstorms in the last 40 years. The rainstorms have aggravated floods in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin in recent decades. The observed trends in precipitation and rainstorms are possibly caused by variations of atmospheric circulation (weakened summer monsoon) under climate warming. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.