期刊
JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING
卷 39, 期 4, 页码 733-774出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00045.x
关键词
endogenous growth; Schumpeterian growth model; semi-endo-genous growth model; TFP; R&D; product proliferation; time-series test
This paper argues that long-run trends in R&D and TFP are more supportive of fully endogenous Schumpeterian growth theory than they are of semi-endogenous growth theory. The distinctive prediction of semi-endogenous theory that sustained TFP growth requires sustained growth of R&D input is not supported by co-integration tests and forecasting exercises, as TFP growth has been stationary even though the growth rate of R&D input has fallen three-fold since the early 1950s. In contrast, the prediction of Schumpeterian theory that sustained TFP growth requires a sustained fraction of GDP to be spent on R&D is not contradicted by similar tests.
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