New exposure-based metric approach for evaluating O3 risk to North American aspen forests

The United States and Canada currently use exposure-based metrics to protect vegetation from O-3. Using 5 years (1999-2003) of comeasured O-3, meteorology and growth response, we have developed exposure-based regression models that predict Populus tremuloides growth change within the North American ambient air quality context. The models comprised growing season fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average O-3 concentration, growing degree days, and wind speed. They had high statistical significance, high goodness of fit, include 95% confidence intervals for tree growth change, and are simple to use. Averaged across a wide range of clonal sensitivity, historical 2001-2003 growth change over most of the 26 M ha P. tremuloides distribution was estimated to have ranged from no impact (0%) to strong negative impacts (-31%). With four aspen clones responding negatively (one responded positively) to O-3, the growing season fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average O-3 concentration performed much better than growing season SUM06, AOT40 or maximum 1 h average O-3 concentration metrics as a single indicator of aspen stem cross-sectional area growth. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.