Issues in spatially explicit statistical land-use/cover change (LUCC) models:: Examples from western Honduras and the Central Highlands of Vietnam

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) results from the complex interaction of social, ecological and geophysical processes. Land users make decisions about their environment that are governed and influenced by political and institutional constraints at local, regional, national and international levels. Statistical analysis of LUCC phenomena is one powerful tool due to its ability to test theoretical assumptions, rank relative factors, and yield rigorous hypotheses test. However, due to the complex nature of coupled human-environment systems, LUCC statistical modeling presents conceptual as well as technical challenges. Careful consideration of these challenges, as well as implementing approaches to deal with them, is necessary in order for such models to inform policy and practice. As examples, we present illustrations of two statistical models of land use in the mountains of western Honduras and the Central Highlands of Vietnam. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.