Developing a long-term local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan

To tackle global climate stabilization concretely, we have developed a method formulating long-term scenarios towards a low-carbon economy at local level. As a result of the pioneering application of this method to Shiga Prefecture, we have found the following: (i) it is possible to design scenarios for moving towards a low-carbon economy in which CO, emission is lowered by 30-50% from the 1990 level by 2030, while the prefecture's gross production continues to grow by 1.6% annually; (ii) in order to halve the emission by 2030, socio- economic structural changes as well as technological measures are essential; and (iii) innovative measures at the prefectural level, such as land planning, renewable energy promotion and lifestyle change, play an increasingly important role as the target reduction rate gets higher. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.