Application of probability methods to assess airframe crash modeling uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations. performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as geometrically accurate models, human occupant models, and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors and. material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The application of probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations of a fuselage vertical drop is the focus of this paper. The results indicate that probabilistic methods show promise for future applications.