Modelling of short-interval silent slip events in deeper subduction interfaces considering the frictional properties at the unstable-stable transition regime

Recent high-resolution observations of crustal movements have revealed silent slip events (SSEs) with propagation velocities of around 10-15 km d(-1) and with intervals of 3-14 months along the deeper parts of the Cascadia and Nankai subduction zones. This study develops 2-D and 3-D models of these short-interval SSEs considering the frictional behaviour that was confirmed experimentally by Shimamoto for the unstable-stable transition regime. To represent this frictional behaviour, a small cut-off velocity to an evolution effect is introduced in a rate- and state-dependent friction law. When the cut-off velocity to the evolution effect is significantly smaller than that to a direct effect, steady-state friction exhibits velocity weakening at low slip velocities and velocity strengthening at high slip velocities. At the deeper Cascadia and Nankai subduction interfaces, the pore pressure is inferred to be high because of the dehydration of materials in the descending plate. Under conditions where the pore-fluid pressure is nearly equal to the lithostatic pressure and the critical weakening displacement is very small, short-interval SSEs with propagation velocities and slip velocities of 4-8 km d(-1) and 2 - 4 x 10(-7) m s(-1), respectively, can be reproduced. The propagation velocity of short-interval SSEs is in proportion to the slip velocity. The results also show that during the nucleation process of large earthquakes, the occurrence of short-interval SSEs becomes irregular because of the accelerated slips that occur at the bottom of the seismogenic zone. Our results suggest that monitoring of short-interval SSEs might be useful for forecasting the main earthquakes.