Effect of wind correlation on aircraft conflict probability

A study which examines the effect of wind correlation on aircraft conflict probability estimation is presented. We describe the correlation structure of the difference between the actual wind and the meteorological wind forecasts and discuss how it can be implemented in simulation. For several encounters we then examine the aircraft conflict probability estimation errors if the correlation structure is ignored and the wind is instead assumed to be modeled as white noise. The conclusion of the study is that wind correlation may have a significant effect under particular encounter geometries.