期刊
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
卷 13, 期 11, 页码 2239-2251出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01448.x
关键词
California; climate change; ENSO; MEI; migration; NAO; Pacific flyway; passerine; PDO; phenology
Climate-related changes associated with the California marine ecosystem have been documented; however, there are no studies assessing changes in terrestrial vertebrate phenology on the Pacific coast of western North America. We analyze the spring phenology of 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird species in central and northern CA. Using observational and banding data at multiple sites, we evaluate evidence for a change in arrival timing being linked to either nonclimatic or multiscalar climatic explanations. Using correlation analysis, of the 13 species with a significant (P < 0.10) change in arrival, the arrival timing of 10 species (77%) is associated with both temperature and a large-scale climate oscillation index (El Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; and/or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) at least at one location. Eight of the 13 species (62%) are advancing their migratory timing. All species for which spring arrival is associated with climate at multiple locations are exhibiting changes (n=5) and all species lacking evidence for association between migration phenology and climate (n=3) exhibit no change. Migrants tend to arrive earlier in association with warmer temperatures, positive NAO indices, and stronger ENSO indices. Twelve species negatively correlate (P <= 0.05) with local or regional temperature at least at one location; five species negatively correlate with ENSO. Eleven species' arrival is correlated (P <= 0.05) with NAO; 10 are negatively associated. After an exhaustive literature search, this is apparently the first documentation of an association between NAO and migratory phenology in western North America.
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