期刊
AMERICAN NATURALIST
卷 178, 期 5, 页码 E110-E123出版社
UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
DOI: 10.1086/662165
关键词
Alaska; Baja California; brant; Branta bernicla nigricans; carryover effect; El Nino; fitness; migration; multistratum robust design; reproduction; winter
资金
- Alaska Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey
- Migratory Bird Management, Region 7, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
- University of Alaska Foundation
- Ducks Unlimited
- Ducks Unlimited de Mexico
- National Science Foundation [OPP 9214970, DEB 9815383, OPP 9985931, OPP 0196406, DEB 0743152]
- Morro Bay Brant Group
- Phil Jebbia
- Nevada Agricultural Experiment Station
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [743152] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California-Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahia San Quintin (BSQ)- and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997-1998 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was 0.98 +/- 0.02, 0.68 +/- 0.04, and 0.91 +/- 0.11 for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997-1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.
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