期刊
AMERICAN NATURALIST
卷 173, 期 1, 页码 72-88出版社
UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
DOI: 10.1086/593357
关键词
epidemiology; Allee effect; SI model; periodic oscillation; multistability; disease-induced extinction
Infectious diseases that affect their host on a long time-scale can regulate the host population dynamics. Here we show that a strong Allee effect can lead to complex dynamics in simple epidemic models. Generally, the Allee effect renders a population bistable, but we also identify conditions for tri- or monostability. Moreover, the disease can destabilize endemic equilibria and induce sustained oscillations. These disappear again for high transmissibilities, with eventually vanishing host population. Disease-induced extinction is thus possible for density-dependent transmission and without any alternative reservoirs. The overall complexity suggests that the system is very sensitive to perturbations and control methods, even in parameter regions with a basic reproductive ratio far beyond. R-0 = 1. This may have profound implications for biological conservation as well as pest management. We identify important threshold quantities and attribute the dynamical behavior to the joint interplay of a strong Allee effect and infection.
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