期刊
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
卷 84, 期 6, 页码 862-869出版社
AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE
DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277
关键词
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资金
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Cholera Vaccine Initiative (CHOVI)
- Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA)
Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1 degrees C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mL of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.
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