Research spending under regulatory uncertainty

Using a simple model this paper examines firm behavior under three types of uncertainties dealing with innovation occurrence, innovation scale, and a possible threat of regulatory action. Firms compete in the existing product market and engage in R&D in Stage I. Innovation takes place in the second stage, the successful firm achieves a monopoly and becomes aware of the scale of innovation. Regulators examine the new product and decide on possible action. Results show that increases in the probability of regulation reduce research spending as do higher regulatory taxes. These results are reversed when the regulator grants a subsidy, instead. An increase in the probability of drastic innovation increases research spending under certain conditions. The effect of market entry is unclear. Our results generally carry through when the model is extended to include only an innovation race or the nondrastic innovation is alternately regulated. Policy implications are discussed.