The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan

This paper considers the possibility of both a linear effect and nonlinear effect of energy consumption on economic growth, using data for the period 1955-2003 in Taiwan. We find evidence of a level-dependent effect between the two variables. Allowing for a nonlinear effect of energy consumption growth sheds new light on the explanation of the characteristics of the energy-growth link. We also provide evidence that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Taiwan is characterized by an inverse U-shape. Some previous studies support the view that energy consumption may promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn from the empirical findings suggests that such a relationship exists only where there is a low level of energy consumption in Taiwan. We show that a threshold regression provides a better empirical model than the standard linear model and that policy-makers should seek to capture economic structures associated with different stages of economic growth. It is also worth noting that the energy consumption threshold was reached in the case of Taiwan in the world energy crises periods of 1979 and 1982. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.