Microbial risk implications of rainfall-induced runoff events entering a reservoir used as a drinking-water source

Waterborne disease outbreaks have been associated with periods of heightened source water pathogen concentrations in treated drinking-water supplies. For their management it is necessary to identify and quantify the impacts of events which lead to adverse concentration fluctuations. The aim of this work was to estimate relative microbial risks to water consumers arising from one such event: rainfall-induced runoff entering a surface drinking-water reservoir in an Australian agricultural catchment. Runoff events are known to influence both the source water entering a reservoir and the ability of a reservoir to act as a barrier to pathogen progression. Hydrograph separation methods were used to distinguish 'runoff event' from baseflow periods and pathogen concentrations of the inflow to the reservoir during runoff and baseflow periods respectively were estimated. Relative impacts of runoff event periods on health risks to consumers were assessed using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment principles. Runoff event conditions predominated 14% of the time. The proportions of infections attributable to runoff event periods from Cryptosporidium, Giardia and Campylobacter spp. were 57 %, 80 %, and 28 respectively. Daily infection risks were greatest in winter months than other seasons primarily due to the higher frequency of runoff events. Results from this and similar analyses, aiming to assess impacts of explicitly identified events on consumer health risks, provides important information for water system risk management, e.g. identifying periods of heightened risk and setting management priorities.