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Why P values are not a useful measure of evidence in statistical significance testing

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THEORY & PSYCHOLOGY
卷 18, 期 1, 页码 69-88

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SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
DOI: 10.1177/0959354307086923

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likelihood ratios; null hypothesis; (overlapping) confidence intervals; p values; posterior probabilities; replication

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Reporting p values from statistical significance tests is common in psychology's empirical literature. Sir Ronald Fisher saw the p value as playing a useful role in knowledge development by acting as an 'objective' measure of inductive evidence against the null hypothesis. We review several reasons why the p value is an unobjective and inadequate measure of evidence when statistically testing hypotheses. A common theme throughout many of these reasons is that p values exaggerate the evidence against H-0. This, in turn, calls into question the validity of much published work based on comparatively small, including.05, p values. Indeed, if researchers were fully informed about the limitations of the p value as a measure of evidence, this inferential index could not possibly enjoy its ongoing ubiquity. Replication with extension research focusing on sample statistics, effect sizes, and their confidence intervals is a better vehicle for reliable knowledge development than using p values. Fisher would also have agreed with the need for replication research.

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