期刊
DEVELOPMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY
卷 44, 期 2, 页码 422-436出版社
AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.1037/0012-1649.44.2.422
关键词
causal inference; trajectories; propensity scores
资金
- NIMH NIH HHS [R01 MH65611-01A2] Funding Source: Medline
A central theme of research on human development and psychopathology is whether a therapeutic intervention or a turning-point event, such as a family break-up, alters the trajectory of the behavior under study. This article describes and applies a method for using observational longitudinal data to make more transparent causal inferences about the impact of such events on developmental trajectories. The method combines 2 distinct lines of research: work on the use of finite mixture modeling to analyze developmental trajectories and work on propensity score matching. The propensity scores are used to balance observed covariates and the trajectory groups are used to control pretreatment measures of response. The trajectory groups also aid in characterizing classes of subjects for which no good matches are available. The approach is demonstrated with an analysis of the impact of gang membership on violent delinquency based on data from a large longitudinal study conducted in Montreal, Canada.
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