Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework

This article documents the underlying principles of scenario planning considered best practice in its application. These principles have been learned directly over the past 15 years from the first-and second-generation pioneers of the scenario method. In this article, human resource development professionals wishing to gain expertise in the discipline of scenario planning will encounter a way of thinking about this work, some key processes having a track record of success, and an outline of the knowledge skills they need to develop to become competent practitioners. The first part identifies a number of key phenomena that led to the birth of scenario-based strategy as a method. The second part describes some of the essential process elements, their origins, and the competencies needed for facilitation and execution. The goal of this article is to provide a set of reliable handrails for practitioners and guidelines for identifying useful further learning resources.