期刊
JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
卷 36, 期 3, 页码 203-223出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11166-008-9040-2
关键词
prospect theory; preference reversal; reference dependence
资金
- ESRC [RES-051-27-0146] Funding Source: UKRI
- Economic and Social Research Council [RES-051-27-0146] Funding Source: researchfish
We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT(3)). This retains the predictive power of previous versions of prospect theory, but extends that theory by allowing reference points to be uncertain while decision weights are specified in a rank-dependent way. We show that PT(3) preferences respect a state-conditional form of stochastic dominance. The theory predicts the observed tendency for willingness-to-accept valuations of lotteries to be greater than willingness-to-pay valuations. When PT(3) is made operational by using simple functional forms with parameter values derived from existing experimental evidence, it predicts observed patterns of the preference reversal phenomenon.
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