期刊
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
卷 23, 期 3, 页码 463-488出版社
SEJONG UNIV, CENTER INT ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.11130/jei.2008.23.3.463
关键词
land use; climate change policy; baseline; general equilibrium; agro-ecological zones
类别
The goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 19972025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.
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