期刊
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
卷 96, 期 4, 页码 1157-1182出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aau010
关键词
Civil war; conflict; drought; Horn of Africa; livestock; pastoralism; price; Somalia
资金
- CGIAR research program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
- International Fund for Agricultural Development
A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.
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