Japan's return to gold: Turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s

We identify turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s to determine which factors were perceived by market participants as affecting Japan's probability of returning to the gold standard. The 1920s were marked by military expansionism, political turmoil, and other dramatic political and institutional events. We conclude that changes of power between the Kenseikai and Seiyukai parties and worsening diplomatic relations with China were primarily responsible for turning points in the value of the yen. The democracy movement and the associated expansion of suffrage seem not to have been viewed as important by contemporaries. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.