期刊
AMERICAN POLITICS RESEARCH
卷 37, 期 4, 页码 700-724出版社
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X08330670
关键词
presidential elections; election forecasting; operations research; Bayesian prediction models
资金
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr
- Div Of Information & Intelligent Systems [0827540] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
It has become a popular pastime for political pundits and scholars alike to predict the winner of the U. S. presidential election. Although forecasting has now quite a history, we argue that the closeness of recent presidential elections and the wide accessibility of data should change how presidential election forecasting is conducted. We present a Bayesian forecasting model that concentrates on the Electoral College outcome and considers finer details such as third-party candidates and self-proclaimed undecided voters. We incorporate our estimators into a dynamic programming algorithm to determine the probability that a candidate will win an election.
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